Santa Monica RE Meltdown

Last Month's Declining Sales Prices

2011-12-27T17:55:00.000-08:00

As we approach the end of 2011, here are some year-ending sales that indicate the Santa Monica market is still trending downward. With interest rates at all time lows, sales should be booming at 20% off of the 2007 peak prices. Yet still we have this real estate malaise as many believe we have not bottomed yet.

With debt problems worldwide getting worse since the 2008 U.S. financial crisis, the Central Banks are merely applying bandaids in hopes of avoiding a full blown global crisis. Since nothing has yet to be resolved with the banking industry, could the next shoe be ready to drop ?

2010 Cloverfield 90404
1+1, 682 sqft
YB 1918, 4748 sqft Lot
SOLD on 5/27/05 for $637,500
SOLD on 12/14/11 for $385,000 (-39.6%)

NORTH OF MONTANA

464 25th Street 90402
3+2, 1712 sqft
YB 1937, 8700 sqft Lot
SOLD on 12/8/11 for $1,985,000

434 17th Street 90402
3+2, 1990 sqft
YB 1928, 7500 sqft Lot
SOLD on 12/20/11 for $1,725,000
Spanish Style

708 20th Street 90402
2+1.75, 1673 sqft
YB 1950, 8940 sqft Lot
SOLD on 12/6/11 for $1,860,000

220 12th Street 90402
2+1.75, 1571 sqft
YB 1939, 7512 sqft Lot
SOLD on 11/29/11 for $1,700,000

NORTH OF WILSHIRE

831 12th Street 90403
8+4 (4 units) 5020 sqft
YB 1928, 7497 sqft Lot
SOLD on 12/2/11 for $1,650,000

944 Berkeley Street 90403
3+3.5, 3303 sqft
YB 1937, 8400 sqft Lot
SOLD on 12/22/11 for $1,649,105

947 18th Street Apt #6 90403
1+1, 775 sqft
YB 1971, CONDO
SOLD on 9/12/91 for $163,000
SOLD on 11/29/11 for $310,000

Here is a very interesting take on how the shadow inventory could effect the RE market in 2012. Any guesses on what it might mean for prices in Santa Monica ?

Gillette Regent Square Land Value hits $179/sqft !

2011-11-25T17:01:00.000-08:00

Here is home that must have been bought for land value. It is located only 2 lots from San Vicente, but is still in GRS. This is a new low not seen since the early 2000s....

210 21st Place 90402
2+2, 1500 sqft
YB 1939, 9073 sqft Lot
SOLD on 10/31/11 for $1,625,000
Land Value = $179 sq/ft

Any comments from 90402?

Sales for the Week of 11-7-11 through 11-13-11

2011-11-13T19:00:00.000-08:00

From now on, I would like to post the sales that have closed in Santa Monica for the week according to Redfin Just click on the link and get the details of any recent sale. This should keep you updated on the current activity in Santa Monica.

Condominiums and Townhomes

918 21st St. Unit C 2+2.5, $564,000
837 10th St. #1 2+2, $570,000
2033 Euclid St. #5 , 2+1, $430,000
847 South 5th St. #2, 2+2, $581,000
212 Marine St. #205, 2+2, $1,375,000

Houses

1032 Yale St. 4+4, $2,900,000
636 16th St. 5+5.5, $3,780,000
347 14th St. 3+3, $1,820,000

434 17th Street at $1,699,000 pending after 2 1/2 weeks.

Please post any pertinent information about these recent sales here.

A Real Rental Database for Santa Monica

2011-09-07T22:38:00.000-07:00

As many readers have started to confess, rents are creeping up in Santa Monica. Now that prices have dropped 25% from their 2007 peak, most everyone is waiting for more declines before buying. This is putting more pressure on the rental market as the pool of renters increases. Let's hear from people what the actual PAID rents are now and get an idea of the rental market. We can divide Santa Monica into 4 different quadrants (hats off to one of our readers):

Northeast - 15th St. to 26th St. & North of Wilshire
(Franklin School District)

Northwest - Santa Monica Beach to 14th St. & North of Wilshire
(Roosevelt School District)

Southeast - 15th St. to Centinela Ave. & South of Wilshire

Southwest - Santa Monica Beach to 14th St. & South of Wilshire

Please include the following:

Quadrant Name & Zip Code
Street Name & Square Footage (If possible)
Bedrooms, Bathrooms & Parking
SFR, Townhouse or Condo (# of Units, Floor Level)
Year Built
Price PAID

This information would be very helpful in constructing a real rental database for Santa Monica. Not some B.S. from rental agencies.

Thanks!

When Will The Real Estate Declines Stop?

2011-08-15T19:17:00.000-07:00

Ah yes, the Million Dollar Question. When will property in Santa Monica stop declining? There are many variables in trying to answer that question. Here are just a few to consider:

1) Stock Market
2) Federal Debt
3) Personal Debt
4) Employment
5) Interest Rates
6) Loan Qualification
7) Bank Shadow Inventory
8) Presidential Election
9) Austerity
10) Europe Debt

And there are many many more to consider. I will post a poll to the right of this blog, for readers to cast their vote. Let's hear your opinion on when and why prices will stop dropping.

90402 North Of Montana Lot Values Off 25%

2011-08-02T17:53:00.000-07:00

During their 2007 peak, standard 7500 sqft lots sold for 2.2 million and oversized 8900 sqft lots fetched 2.5 million. Fast forward 4 years later and these same lots are 1.6 and 1.9 million respectively. If you would have mentioned NOM lots would decline by 25% and even include foreclosures, people would have laughed you out of the building. Well, perhaps it's not so funny for now, for those who bought near or at the peak.

Some will argue that everybody in 90402 has the means to buy what ever they want, including overpriced real estate. If that was true, than why have values dropped 25%? The truth is 2 different markets exist here. There are those who purchase a home in 90402, that have the means to do so and are looking for a great neighborhood to live. And there are those looking to speculate, building sub-standard homes or, they just can't afford the area in reality. These folks are the ones in trouble, having trouble selling now that the housing casino has ended. It has become obvious, as good homes with equity are selling, while others stagnate and go off the market. There are even a couple now, that have reverted back to the bank without going on the market.

That being said, let's take a look at the 90402 neighborhood and see what's happening now :

RECENT SALES

620 17th St. 90402
2+1.75, 1632 sqft
YB 1940, 7500 sqft Lot
SOLD on 11/07/06 for $1,850,000
SOLD on 7/12/11 for $1,650,000 (-11%)
Franklin Sch Dst

438 Euclid Ave. 90402
3+2.75, 2380 sqft
YB 1948, 7500 sqft Lot
SOLD on 7/25/11 for $1,841, 275
Move In Condition

716 19th St. 90402
4+2, 3336 sqft
YB 1969, 8940 sqft Lot
SOLD on 8/2/11 for $1,865,000
Gilette Regent Square

604 23rd St. 90402
4+2, 3406 sqft
YB 1939, 8940 sqft Lot
SOLD on 11/5/89 for $1,225,000
SOLD on 7/15/94 for $950,000 (-23%)
SOLD on 8/2/11 for $2,475,000
Gilette Regent Square

REO FORECLOSURES

310 22nd St. 90402
5+6, 6505 sqft
YB 1989, 7500 sqft Lot
SOLD on 7/19/03 for $2,650,000
FORECLOSED on 7/19/10 for $3,000,000
Off Market

222 Amalfi Dr. 90402
4+4, 3300 sqft
YB 1929, 6011 sqft Lot
FORECLOSED on 2/16/10 for $2,486,245
FORECLOSED on 4/11/11 for $1,751,925

FOR SALE

620 15th St. 90402
3+2, 1450 sqft
YB 1938, 7500 sqft Lot
LISTED on 7/26/11 for $1,749,000
Move In Condition

620 19th St. 90402
2+2.5, 2296 sqft
YB 1927, 8940 sqft Lot
LISTED on 7/14/11 for $1,999,999
Spanish Style

Post any additional inforation on these homes or others here.

When Do Rents Make Santa Monica A Winning Investment?

2011-07-24T11:00:00.000-07:00

With rents equal to about half of the home buying expense in Santa Monica, when, if ever, will renting out a home in Santa Monica cover yearly expenses? In the past, many have said that yearly appreciation will more than offset the negative cash flow of a Santa Monica Rental. With Santa Monica real estate still bubble priced, but trending downward, when would buying property as an investor make sense?

Obviously, there are more reasons for buying a home, than just purely as an investment. But, the negative cashflow on a rental property, is an indicator of how overvalued a property is. Without investors in the market, the pool of buyers is less and the market will continue to drop. Sure, there are a few sales occurring for good homes that are priced to sell ( Not underwater, delusional or testing the market). However, the majority of inventory is just sitting on the market for over 3 months now. One look at Redfin and we find during the the last month from June 24 - July 24, 2011, the Santa Monica market breaks down like this:

SFRs

Sold 25
Listed 106
Market Inventory 4.24
Avg. Days On Market 104 days

CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES

Sold 20
Listed 176
Market Inventory 8.80
Avg. Days On Market 113 days

Obviously the Condo/Townhouse market is faring worse than the SFRs. However, one of the key statistics is Average Days on the Market. With the average real estate listing being 90 days, how many other listings just expire and go off the market? That would be interesting to know. Most who bought from 2003 - 2009 would most likely be underwater after selling their homes. Unfortunately, these homes are priced to high and they languish on the market. Only those with solid equity, are actually able to sell. That being said, let's look at some of the recent SFR sales in Santa Monica, over the last 3 months:

2917 Urban Ave. 90404
3+1, 1012 sqft
YB 1936, 6500 sqft Lot
SOLD on 5/15/11 for $403,000
Short Sale

26 Seaside Ter. 90401
1+1, 990 sqft
YB 1948, 2775 sqft Lot
SOLD on 4/29/11 for $600,000
W. of Ocean

2905 Cloverfield Ave. 90405
3+2, 1786 sqft
YB 1937, 6250 sqft Lot
SOLD on 7/1/11 for $755,000
Trust Sale

727 Hill St. 90405
3+1, 1125 sqft
YB 1947, 5998 sqft Lot
SOLD on 6/28/11 for $770,000

2940 16th St. 90405
3+2, 1191 sqft
YB 1938, 5519 sqft Lot
SOLD on 5/24/11 for $775,000

1818 Marine St. 90405
3+1, 1030 sqft
YB 1945, 6996 sqft Lot
SOLD on 4/18/11 for $775,000

2622 31st St. 90405
3+2, 1511 sqft
YB 1940, 6000 sqft Lot
SOLD on 4/28/11 for $906,000
Trust Sale

25246 24th St. 90405
3+1.75, 1770 sqft
YB 1939, 6762 sqft Lot
SOLD on 4/15/11 for $918,000

336 7th St. 90402
2+1.5, 1148 sqft
YB 1950, 5933 sqft Lot
SOLD on 5/2/11 for $1,278,000

825 Berkeley 90403
5+5, 5038 sqft
YB 1973, 9000 sqft Lot
SOLD 7/12/06 for $2,000,000
SOLD on 6/1/11 for $1,500,000 (-25%)

445 18th St. 90402
3+2, 1959 sqft
YB 1940, 8940 sqft Lot
SOLD on 6/9/11 for $1,747,050
GRS Historical Spanish

302 15th St. 90403
3+2, 2169 sqft
YB 1927, 7500 sqft Lot
SOLD on 5/26/11 for $2,050,000
French Normandy

Anyone having further information on these properties or others, please post it here.

Santa Monica Condominiums Crumbling

2011-07-12T15:53:00.000-07:00

Condominiums and Townhouses in Santa Monica are off around 35% from their 2007 peaks and back to 2003 pricing. We are now seeing entry level homes in the $500,000s, 400,000s, 300,000s and even in the $200,000s!

Here are 19 recent sales in the last 3 months:

1128 Georgina Ave # 8 90402
3+2.5, 2200 sqft, YB 1989
SOLD on 5/17/11 for $1,280,000

931 10th St Unit A 90403
3+2.5, 2030 sqft, YB 2002
SOLD on 4/28/11 for $1,040,000

502 San Vicente # 101 90402
3+2, 1792 sqft, YB 1979
SOLD on 7/25/06 for $1,325,000
SOLD on 6/29/11 for $985,000 (-26%)

912 17th St. # 1 90403
3+2.5, 2522 sqft, YB 1967
SOLD on 2/11/00 for $725,000
SOLD on 3/16/11 for $964,000

2940 Neilson Way # 340 90405
2+2, 1352 sqft, YB 1980
SOLD on 7/5/11 for $710,000
Sea Colony

2940 Neilson Way #105 90405
1+1.5, 1105 sqft, YB 1980
SOLD on 4/15/11 for $590,000
Sea Colony

1417 26th St Unit B 90404
3+2.5, 1600 sqft, YB 1978
SOLD on 6/28/11 for $585,000

1429 26th St. #15 90404
2+2.5, 1477 sqft, YB 1980
SOLD on 5/6/04 for $576,000
SOLD on 5/18/11 for $518,000 (-10%)

2677 Centinela Ave. # 401 90405
2+2.5, 1777 sqft, YB 1980
SOLD on 10/29/04 for $565,000
SOLD on 5/23/11 for $510,000 (-10%)
Short Sale

1225 Washington Ave. # 9 90403
3+1.75, 1314 sqft, YB 1959
SOLD on 6/21/11 for $509,000

757 Ocean Ave Unit 314 90402
1+1, 781 sqft, YB 1958
SOLD on 3/9/05 for $560,000
SOLD on 5/12/11 for $450,000 (-20%)

2309 5th St # 1 90405
2+1.75, 937 sqft, YB 1966
SOLD on 11/22/05 for $570,000
SOLD on 6/28/11 for $425,000 (-26%)
Short Sale

1315 Stanford St. # 7 90404
2+1.75, 971 sqft, YB 1968
SOLD on 10/28/04 for $500,000
SOLD on 4/12/11 for $400,000 (-20%)

2308 Schader Dr. # 308 90404
2+1.5, 828 sqft, YB 1972
SOLD on 11/27/06 for $574,000
SOLD on 3/15/11 for $370,000 (-35%)
Short Sale

922 14th St # 106 90403
1+1, 736 sqft, YB 1974
SOLD on 9/9/05 for $519,000
SOLD on 4/29/11 for $340,000 (-34%)

2444 4th St #10 90405
1+1, 665 sqft, YB 1964
SOLD on 4/20/11 for $335,000

1313 18th St #1 90404
1+1.25, 596 sqft, YB 1962
SOLD on 4/29/11 for $310,000

2621 Centinela Ave # 13 90405
2+1.75, 992 sqft, YB 1958
SOLD on 5/25/11 for $300,000

2325 Kansas Ave # 15 90404
1+1, 650 sqft, YB 1958
SOLD on 9/15/04 for $ 346,000
SOLD on 6/9/11 for $280,000 (-19%)

If you have any information about these recent sales or others, please post it here.

Santa Monica Prices Still Slipping

2011-05-18T13:10:00.000-07:00

Going into our 5th year of declines, there doesn't seem to be anything in sight to prevent prices from falling further. I would like to start posting sales meltdowns as they come in. If you have any information on these properties or others, please post them here and let's get the word out. Here are some recent SFR sales of interest:

1337 Grant St 90405
2+1, 926 sqft
YB 1949, 4950 sqft lot
SOLD on 04/08/11 for $675,000
Short Sale
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/1337-Grant-St-90405/home/6775420

1109 Maple St 90405
2+1, 1297 sqft
YB 1926, 6439 sqft
SOLD on 03/10/11 for $798,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/1109-Maple-St-90405/home/6775218

2315 27th St 90405
2+1, 1315 sqft
YB 1939, 7791 sqft lot
Spanish Style
SOLD on 04/25/11 for $825,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/2315-27th-St-90405/home/6764661

152 Hart Ave 90405
3+4, 2278 sqft
YB 1925, 2357 sqft lot
White Water View
SOLD on 10/31/06 for $2,560,000
SOLD on 04/13/11 for $1,100,000 (-57%)
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/152-Hart-Ave-90405/home/6778597

746 26th St 90402
2+1, 1237 sqft
YB 1933, 8700 sqft lot
SOLD on 03/30/11 for $1,100,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/746-26th-St-90402/home/6769680

717 11th St 90402
3+2, 2032 sqft
YB 1925, 7500 sqft lot
SOLD on 03/07/11 for $1,492,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/717-11th-St-90402/home/6771884

339 24th St 90402
5+2.75, 2723 sqft
YB 1929, 8700 sqft lot
SOLD on 03/01/11 for $2,100,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/339-24th-St-90402/home/6769803

533 10th St 90402
3+2, 1556 sqft
YB 1924, 7500 sqft
SOLD on 03/31/11 for $1,692,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/533-10th-St-90402/home/6771745

733 20th St 90402
3+2, 1704 sqft
YB 1927, 8940 sqft lot
SOLD on 03/18/11 for $1,850,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/746-26th-St-90402/home/6769680

3344 Virginia Ave 90404
2+2.5, 1424 sqft
YB 1950, 6500 sqft lot
SOLD 03/30/07 for $825,000
SOLD on 04/28/11 for $625,000 (-24.2%)
Short Sale
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/3344-Virginia-Ave-90404/home/6764555

How much further does it drop from here? 10, 15, 20, 25% ???

The First Real Foreclosure in Gillette Regent Square 90402

2011-04-24T22:47:00.000-07:00

Here we have it. One of the most prime areas, in one of the most prime zip codes, in one of the most prime cities on the Westside. And they said it would never happen here. This home is in move in condition and is not a teardown. Sure someone could still knock it down and build the home of their dreams, but they would be overpaying. The price ultimately paid for this will probably set a current low, considering the size and condition of the home on a large lot in GRS. It does happen to be 3 lots from Montana Avenue, but still should reduce land values in the area, once the price is set. The bank has listed it on the high side hoping to rope someone in, because it is an REO. If anything else, that should reduce the price even more. H/O to Santa Monica Distress for digging up this one.

Here are the details on this baby:

740 21st Place S.M. 90402
4+4, 2913 sqft
YB 1928, Renovated 1960
8940 sqft Lot

(Double Click to Enlarge)

The property history shows:

LISTED for $2,299,900 0n 4/22/2011
FORECLOSED for $1,950,000 on 1/14/2011
VALUED over $3,000,000 in 2007
SOLD for $2,180,000 on 4/21/2004

Given these figures, it appears the home should go under $2,000,000. I'm sure there will be alot of interest and we will have to see, what it eventually sells for. Give us your estimate in the poll to the right.

To Be Or Not To Be...

2011-02-13T18:48:00.000-08:00

One of our readers has asked me to start a thread about development North of Montana, 90402. It seems that a large house is being built on two adjoining 20th Street lots. The house appears to straddle two lots and provides more privacy from it's neighbors. However, our reader was informed by his architect, the City of Santa Monica will no longer issue this type of permit. Is this true? Was 440 20th Street some special exclusion or variance?

Here is the house in question:

440 20th Street
Santa Monica 90402
8900 sqft Lot ?????
SOLD 1/25/07
$5,000,050

(Double Click to Enlarge Photos)

Permit Issued :04/2010

Structure: 6800 sqft

Garage : 501 sqft

Lot: 17,800 sqft ???????

Any knowledge about this particular situation is appreciated.

179 Properties In Some Stage Of Foreclosure

2010-12-26T14:21:00.001-08:00

For those who thought Santa Monica was immune to the real estate downturn, take a look at these properties from Foreclosure Radar. Be sure to click on the Listings Tab to see individual properties. Houses over 1 Million have shown a dramatic spike from last year.

Renting Option in 90402

2010-12-23T20:27:00.000-08:00

You have to be kidding right? Absolutely not. It actually makes more sense to rent in this neighborhood, than just about anywhere else. Looking at a $2,000,000 starter house, prices are still out of whack, when you apply a Patrick.net calculator. The cost to "own" is over $8000 more per month, then renting. In 7 years you can say goodbye to your $400,000 down payment, not to mention any opportunity cost.Even if you add a premium to live North of Montana, it doesn't make sense. Of course, if you have cash to burn and housing cost is of no concern, jump right in. After a 25% drop in just 3 years, the chance of dropping another 15 - 25% is much greater, than gaining another 15 - 25%. If we continue following in the footsteps of Japan, it could be another 10 years before you recoup your losses.

Prime GRS Lot Value Hits $175 Per Square squareFoot

2010-12-13T06:04:00.000-08:00

According to Redfin, we have officially rolled back to 2003 for prime lots in Gillette Regent Square. Sure, real estate agents will come out of the woodwork defending this area, but a comp is a comp, is a comp. Anyone paying more than $175/sq ft for a teardown here is just foolish. Here are the details:

428 23rd Street 90402
3+2, 1903 sqft
YB 1950, 8190 sqft Lot
Sold 3/27/03 for $1,345,000
Sold 10/25/10 for $1,420,000

(Double Click on Photo to Enlarge)

This house would probably cost $100,000 to scrape, and puts the price of raw land at almost $160/ sqft. Even the best of Santa Monica real estate is still trending down..

The Best Of The Best ?

2010-10-05T06:29:00.000-07:00

We have had some big sales in Santa Monica recently. Are the prices paid showing more weakness,,or more strength? One of the houses was a huge property West of 7th Avenue on Marguerite Avenue. The other was a Spec Home on 24th Street. Both are in the 90402 zip code, North of Montana Avenue. Here is the first one:

504 Marguerite Avenue
8+8, 7071 sqft
YB 1928, 22938 sqft Lot
LIST 4/23/10 for $9,950,000
SOLD 9/15/10 for $7,450,000
Cape Cod

Double Click to Enlarge

This happens to be one of the best pieces of real estate in Santa Monica. Huge, flat lot, and only 5 blocks from Palisades Park. It started at almost $10,000,000 in April of this year, before selling at 25% off list price. Does it have another 25% to go? If so, we are looking at around $5,000,000. That 's a bit more reasonable.

515 24th Street
6+6.5, 7306 sqft
YB 2010, 8700 sqft Lot
SOLD 11/20/07 for $2,500,000
SOLD 9/24/10 for $4,500,000
New England Beach

Double Click to Enlarge

This lot was purchased at the peak of the market for $2,500,000. The timing couldn't have been worse. At $4,500,000, that means about $342 a square foot all in. Taking into consideration taxes, carrying costs and any maintenance, This Spec house doesn't add up. Lop off another 25%, once the market bottoms and were looking at $1,125,000 less or around $3,375,000 for a newer home. Slowly but surely, house are adjusting back to historical norms.

Which way do you see the high end heading?

Are Spec Homes Back in 90402 ?

2010-09-27T18:58:00.000-07:00

One of our readers made a comment about the the number of homes under construction in 90402. I seems that 9 houses were bought, torn down and are building what lappears to be McMansions, with 3000 sqft underground and possibly 4000 ft above. Has anyone else notice this activity? If so, are these being built for private residences or spec? There seems to be a glut of poorly built spec houses already, that eventually will lose money. With the hard and soft costs, the continued decline in property values, and lack of true qualified buyers, if they are specs, they are in for a rude awakening.

More 2003 - 2004 Prices

2010-09-20T21:34:00.000-07:00

Not a whole lot of sales in Santa Monica, over the last 30 days. We are still seeing 2003 - 2004 pricing North of Wilshire and North of Montana. The delinquency rate for prime mortgages is now over 14%, or about 1/7 of the prime mortgages. The biggest increase in defaults is now in the prime category. The pig continues to work its' way through the snake.

Let's take a look at some 2003 - 2004 prices:

460 23rd Street 90402
3+2.5, 2804 sqft
YB 1937, 8800 sqft Lot
Sold on 8/23/10
$2,228,000
Late 2004 Price

(Click twice to enlarge)

2215 California Avenue 90403
3+3, 1774 sqft
YB 1922, 5227 sqft Lot
Sold on 8/25/10
$1,395,000
Late 2003 Price

(Click twice to enlarge)

1021 19th Street #5 90403
2+3, 1333 sqft
YB 1963, Condo
Sold on 8/19/10
$597,500
Early 2004 Price

(Click twice to enlarge)

Prices still grinding down lower and lower.

Great Streets and Low Prices in Gillette Regent Square

2010-09-12T14:19:00.000-07:00

This summer provided us with a few highly discounted properties. Some of the best tree-lined streets were up for grabs. The question is, are we at a pause in the market where prices move a leg up or down? The homes here are priced at least, back to 2004. Keep in mind, that represents 25% of the bubble years and we had an enormous price increase from 1999 - 2004.

Let's look at a few discounted homes:

722 18th Street 90402
3+3, 1908 sqft
YB 1937, 8940 sqft Lot
Historical Spanish
Trust Sale
$1,689,000

(Double click picture to enlarge)

622 21st Street 90402
4+3, 2322 sqft
YB 1926, 8940 sqft Lot
Tudor Style
$2,026,000

(Double click picture to enlarge)

401 21st Place 90402
3+2, 1988 sqft
YB 1936, 9880 sqft Lot
Spanish Hacienda
Big Corner Lot
$2,300,000

(Double click picture to enlarge)

Looks like a good 25% discount, off of 2007 peak prices.

Existing And New Home Sales Numbers Are Just Plain Ugly

2010-08-28T12:54:00.000-07:00

A collapse in existing homes sales in the U.S. of -27% over last month and -25% year over year , has hurt the housing market. Now that the latest government kool-aid is wearing off, we have a glimpse of reality. The truth is, everything's deleveraging, as we fight delation. Homes, cars, and large durable items, are all showing big sales declines. In this environment, how many people are actually in the market for a home? With the job picture in question and home prices declining, people are beginning to understand how inflated prices became with the advent of "financial innovation". In other words, easy credit, like we have never seen before. Those days are over, and banks will not lend, unless you are rock solid with cash to put up.

How will this affect the Santa Monica Market? Is it so insulated that it will be hardly affected? There iappears to be significant stress now in the middle and high end tiers. Many bad loans can be masked in a booming market, but in a real estate bust, all the warts begin to show.

Here are the results of our reader poll:

% of Underwater Mortgages in Santa Monica?

10-19% (9%)
20-29% (9%)
30-39% (45%)
40% + (37%)

That's over 80%, who believe 1/3 or more of their neighbors with mortgages, are underwater.

Just How Many Underwater Mortgages Are There?

2010-08-19T16:17:00.000-07:00

That is the million dollar question. We are seeing a growing trend of borrowers that owe more than their house is worth, stop making payments. In some cases, they have been able to remain in their houses for 2 years and more, without paying a dime. Our new "21st century squatters." The reason for this is banks are reluctant to foreclose once they issue a notice of default. This keeps them from having to show it on their books, when the owner (squatter) is still living there. It's called "Extend and Pretend" in the business of banking. In addition, they have someone preventing vandalism to their property, and it keeps the city off their back. With prices generally in the mid 2004 - mid 2005 prices range and dropping, how many of the buyers who bought from 2004 on, are now underwater (considering taxes, maintenance and selling costs)? Fill out our reader poll and give us your opinion.

What kind of impact will this have, going forward with Santa Monica real estate? Is it possible some borrowers might quit paying their mortgage, save for a down payment and close on another house, before letting the first one go? Has it yet to become fodder for conversations at cocktail parties? Perhaps now, borrowers are taking lessons from the banks, on how to play the game.

90401 Summer Meltdowns 2010 Close To The Promenade

2010-08-15T19:01:00.000-07:00

The last in our series of summer meltdowns is 90401. This area is bordered by 11th Street to the East, The Pacific Ocean to the West, Wilshire Boulevard to the North and Pico Boulevard to the South. Often considered another starter area for Santa Monica, it is within walking distance to Downtown and the Santa Monica Promenade. Not as much activity, since it encompasses a large commercial area .

Here are the 90401 meltdowns:

1233 11th Street 90401
8+3, 2689 sqft
YB 1924, 7497 sqft Lot
SOLD on 5/29/01 for $1,100,000
LIST on 10/10/08 for $2,890,000
SOLD on 3/1/10 for $1,500,000

1255 10th Street # 105 90401
2+2, 1212 sqft
YB 1970, Condo
SOLD on 6/23/10 for $530,000

1252 11th Street # 304 90401
2+2, 1142 sqft
YB 1973, Condo
SOLD on 5/27/04 for $500,000
SOLD on 5/6/10 for $450,000
REO, Tennant Occupied

1239 9th Street # 7 90401
1+1, 598 sqft
YB 1987, Condo
SOLD on 10/28/05 for $440,000
SOLD on 4/27/10 for $385,000

Prices now falling in all zip codes.

90404 Summer Meltdowns 2010 Starter Area For Santa Monica

2010-08-09T15:44:00.000-07:00

A seldom mentioned zip code, 90404 is an excellent place to begin in Santa Monica. The area is bordered by Wilshire Blvd. to North, Pico Blvd.to the South, 11th St. to the West and Centinela Ave. to the East. A great entry level market, it too is showing prices back to 2004 and below. Even a couple SFRs sold in the low $600,000s.

90404 meltdowns:

1537 16th St. 90404
2+1, 1141 sqft
YB 1906, (?) Lot
SOLD on 12/27/06 for $1,325,000
SOLD on 2/11/10 for $910,000

3011 Urban Ave. 90404
3+2, 1476 sqft
YB 1938, 6499 sqft Lot
SOLD on 6/15/10 for $740,000

3024 Arizona Ave. 90404
2+1, 952 sqft
YB 1923, 2871 sqft Lot
SOLD on 6/1/06 for $970,000
SOLD on 6/9/10 for $735,000
California Bungalow

1837 21st St. 90404
2+2, 1180 sqft
YB 1941, 7497 sqft Lot
LIST on 1/28/10 for $900,000
SOLD on 7/7/10 for $630,000

1917 12th St. 90404
2+1, 992 sqft
YB 1923, 7497 sqft Lot
SOLD on 10/31/03 for $640,000
SOLD on 3/15/10 for $625,000

1453 Stanford St. Unit E 90404
3+2.75, 1260 sqft
YB 1963, Condo
SOLD on 4/28/05 for $661,000
SOLD on 4/6/10 for $580,000

1420 Princeton St. #2 90404
2+2, 1477 sqft
YB 1991, Condo
SOLD on 5/13/05 for $630,000
SOLD on 7/15/10 for $523,000

1532 Berkeley St. #7 90404
2+2, 924 sqft
YB 1971, Condo
SOLD on 9/12/05 for $553,000
SOLD on 3/30/10 for $435,000

1228 14th St. #102 90404
2+2, 798 sqft
YB 1971, Condo
SOLD on 11/20/03 for $365,000
SOLD on 3/3/10 for $375,000

Prices headed downward.....

90402 Summer Meltdowns 2010 North of Montana

2010-08-05T09:35:00.000-07:00

The holy grail of Santa Monica, North of Montana (NOM) is seeing prices roll back to 2004 and in some cases, even lower. Without a doubt, the most sought after neighborhood in Santa Monica, is showing discounts of 25% and more, off of peak prices in 2007. Even though many felt 90402 would never decline, prices are still headed downward.

Here are the meltdowns for 90402 over the last 6 months:

628 24th St. 90402
5+6.5, 5248 sqft
YB 2002, 8700 sqft Lot
SOLD on 9/9/05 for $4,200,000
SOLD on 5/28/10 for $3,517,000

147 Ocean Ave. Ext 90402
3+4, 3600 sqft
YB 2006, 4095 sqft Lot
SOLD on 6/3/08 for $4,750,000
SOLD on 6/16/10 for $2,500,000
Almost 50% in 2 years

234 22nd St. 90402
4+5, 3761 sqft
YB 1993, 7550 sqft Lot
SOLD on 5/12/10 for $2,300,000

205 19th St. 90402
4+4.5, 3962 sqft
YB 1933, 12516 sqft Lot
LIST on 6/19/08 for $4,350,000
SOLD on 6/24/10 for $2,282,500

247 20th St. 90402
3+3, 2676 sqft
YB 1925, 8940 sqft Lot
SOLD on 4/14/03 for $1,500,000
LIST on 10/10/08 for $2,890,000
SOLD on 4/6/10 for $1,860,000

508 10th St. 90402
4+4, 2408 sqft
YB 1923, 7500 sqft Lot
LIST on 4/28/10 for $2,499,000
SOLD on 7/8/10 for $1,800,000

815 San Vicente Blvd. 90402
5+4, 3829 sqft
YB 1952, 9426 sqft Lot
LIST on 12/04/09 for $2,395,000
SOLD on 4/20/10 for $1,800,000

627 Euclid St. 90402
2+2, 1244 sqft
YB 1922 , 7500 sqft Lot
SOLD on 10/23/07 for $2,298,000
SOLD on 4/9/10 for $1,758,000

237 Adelaide Dr. 90402
2+1.5, 1093 sqft
YB 1949, 5662 sqft Lot
SOLD on 12/21/05 for $1,870,000
SOLD on 6/7/10 for $1,500,000

Not even the mightiest of Santa Monica, can escape the downturn.

90405 Summer Meltdowns 2010 Ocean Park & Sunset Park

2010-07-30T15:10:00.000-07:00

Two other desirable neighborhoods in Santa Monica are now showing signs of stress. Ocean Park and Sunset Park, stretch from Pico Blvd. in the North, Marine St. to the South, Centinela Ave. in the East and to the Pacific Ocean in the West. Often considered starter neighborhoods, prices here are reflecting 2004' with an occasional 2003' price appearing. More and more houses are in the $700Ks now, with a few in the $600Ks and even one in the $500Ks.

718 Marine St 90405
1+1, 427 sqft
YB 1918, 2498 sqft Lot
SOLD on 3/23/05 for $615K
SOLD on 6/18/10 for $535K

1817 Dewey St. 90405
2+1, 648 sqft
YB 1948, 7863 sqft Lot
LIST on 1/19/10 for $999K
SOLD on 6/18/10 for$620K
Golf Course View
Probate

1100 Ocean Park Blvd. 90405
3+2, 1343 sqft
YB 1947, 4996 sqft Lot
SOLD on 4/22/05 for $905K
SOLD on 6/10/04 for $729K
SOLD on 4/15/10 for $646K

2434 23rd St. 90405
2+1, 945 sqft
YB 1945, 6750 sqft
SOLD on 7/16/10 for $675K

2405 29th St. 90405
2+1, 940 sqft
YB 1939, 6000 sqft
LIST on 10/16/09 for $849K
SOLD on 2/25/10 for $680K

2617 33rd St. 90405
2+1, 938 sqft
YB 1939, 6399 sqft Lot
SOLD on 4/13/10 for $695K

2726 6th St. 90405
2+2, 1850 sqft
YB 1900, 3300 sqft Lot
LIST on 9/11/09 for $1598K
SOLD on 4/14/10 for $697.5K
Foreclosure

708 Raymond Ave 90405
2+1.5, 916 sqft,
YB 1948, 5650 sqft Lot
SOLD on 8/11/04 for $829K
SOLD on 3/10/10 for $720K
Short Sale

2525 6th St. 90405
2+1, 1032 sqft
YB 1922, 2897 sqft Lot
SOLD on 12/20/04 for $850K
SOLD on 2/17/10 for $735K
California Bungalow
REO

750 Navy St. 90405
2+1.5, 1456 sqft
YB 2008, 1995 sqft Lot
LIST on 10/28/09 for $979K
SOLD on 4/21/10 for $781K
Move In Condition

With banks beginning to market Short Sales, Foreclosures and REOs, could these be cracks in the Santa Monica Market?

90403 Summer Meltdowns 2010 North of Wilshire & South of Montana

2010-07-22T16:47:00.000-07:00

This website is exclusively for those interested in the Santa Monica Market. We will try to cover all of the Santa Monica areas from Marine St. (South) to La Mesa Ave. (North) and from the Pacific Ocean (West) to Centinela Ave. (East). As in many other desirable areas on the Westside, prices have begun to drop into the 2003 range. Let's look at our first neighborhood 90403 which runs the length of Santa Monica from West to East and is bordered by Wilshire Blv. in the South and Montana Ave. in the North.

1038 21st St. 90403
3+2, 1596 sqft
YB 1926, 7998 sqft Lot
SOLD on 8/4/06 for $1750K
SOLD on 9/25/09 for $1090K
(2003 pricing)

811 19th St. 90403
Vacant Land, 7998 sqft Lot
W/ Permit & Plans for 5 units
SOLD on 5/4/04 for $1520K
SOLD on 3/30/10 for $1500K
(2003 pricing)

937 20th St. 90403
6+5, 3188 sqft
YB 1930, 7998 sqft Lot
SOLD on 5/10/10 for $1350K
SOLD on 11/5/03 for $1327.5K
(2003 pricing)

837 18th St. #2 90403
3+3, 1757 sqft
YB 2005, Condo
SOLD on 9/29/04 for $1125K
SOLD on 2/8/10 for $925K
18% loss from New
(2003 pricing)

1122 26th St. #104 90403
2+2.5, 1300 sqft
YB 2009, New Townhouse
SOLD on 11/18/09 for $919K
SOLD on 1/22/10 for $802.5K
13% Loss in 2 months !!!!

1024 Chelsea 90403
3+3, 1775 sqft
YB 1960, 6118 sqft Lot
SOLD on 4/30/10 for $1195K
(2003 pricing)

Anyone who has additional information about these sales, would be greatly appreciated.

Open Thread for the Start of Summer

2010-06-28T19:34:00.000-07:00

For those primarily interested in Santa Monica 90402, let's open by seeing what the topics of interest are:

1) Recent Sales?
2) Home Building?
3) City of Santa Monica?
4) Commercial Business Along Montana Ave.?
5) Sales Trends?
6) Move Up Market?
7) Move Down Market?
8) Bullish?
9) Bearish?
10) Franklin School?

Here are just a few topics to get things rolling, or if you have something else on your mind, let's hear it.

First REO hits the Flats of 90402

2010-02-08T06:30:00.000-08:00

The very first REO to be marketed in the flats of 90402 has been brought to my attention by one of our readers. The address is 247 20th Street and is listed at 1.7 Million. It is a 3 + 3 , 8900 sqft lot, 2676 sqft house with a converted garage in the back. There could be some possible issues with the City of SM in regards to the garage. Closest comp would probably be 210 21st Street, 3+3, 8900 sqft lot, 2176 sqft house that sold on 4/14/2009 for 1.7 Million. That house was 2 doors down from San Vicente.

(Double Click on Picture)

Being the very first REO, what is the Value of 247 20th Street?

Very Little "Listed" Inventory

2010-01-19T19:35:00.000-08:00

A quick look on Redfin turns up about 10 listings in the flats of 90402. This seems unusually low. Are sellers renting out properties in hopes of a rebound later? Are banks holding off on foreclosure and keeping homes in the shadows in hopes of a rebound? With prices off as much as 30% and still dropping, how low before we see signs of a bottom? What used to go for $4,000,000 is now $3,000,000 and what used to go for $3,000,000 is now $2,000,000. If the inventory is low, then the market must still be dropping. Otherwise, we should be flooded with inventory at 30% off.

What's happening here?

NODs, NODs, NODs in 2010

2009-12-31T17:19:00.000-08:00

According to Google Maps , there are currently 22 NODs (Notice of Defaults) located in the Flats of 90402, where people have stopped paying their mortgages. This would have been hard to imagine at the beginning of 2009. With prices dropping and more mortgages underwater, it's not that suprising. The question is how many others will be added in 2010? I would venture to say double that amount will be in default at the end of 2010. Eventually, most of them will come to market, just when? Purchases made in the 2000s will ultimately be at most risk as toxic mortgage loan products made their appearance. Throw in HELOCs (Home Equity Lines Of Credit) and 2010 looks to be another tough year for real estate in 90402.

What is your take on the New Year ahead?

Lots of Sales and Foreclosure Action in November and December

2009-12-25T14:27:00.000-08:00

90402 has been busy these last couple months. It appears that properties are moving when priced right, or they are headed towards foreclosure. According to Google Maps, they're 35 foreclosure properties located in the flats. You can access Google Maps to the right in my RE Tools links. Meanwhile, here is what has sold recently since the last update. If anyone has information about any of these sales, please share it. Particularily 358 20th Street, as it appears to have gone out awfully low.

734 12th St
$975K, 11/12/09, 1+1
720 sqft, YB 1926, 4796 sqft lot
$1,354/sqft

358 20th St
$1,200K, 12/08/09, 6+4
3602 sqft, YB 1928, 8940 sqft lot
$333/sqft ????????

723 11th St
$1,294K, 12/11/09, 3+1
1559 sqft, YB 1923, 7496 sqft lot
$830/sqft

444 9th St
$1,585K, 12/22/09, 3+1
1557 sqft, YB 1924, 7500 sqft lot
$1,018/sqft,
Tudor style, move-in condition

626 11th St
$1,600K, 11/17/09, 3+2
1939 sqft, YB 1926, 7500 sqft lot
$825/sqft

408 20th St
$1,815K, 12/22/09, 2+den+2
2321 sqft, YB 1950, 8940 sqft lot
$782/sqft

339 Adelaide St
$1,885K, 11/19/09, 3+2.5
1996 sqft, YB 1950, 7296 sqft lot
$944/sqft
Ocean/Canyon Views

1303 Georgina Ave
$2,109K, 12/15/09, 4+3
2977 sqft, YB 1924, 9500 sqft lot
$750/sqft
Country English style

721 19th St
$2/149K, 11/20/09, 5+3
2418 sqft, YB 1925, 8940 sqft lot
$888/sqft

410 23rd St
$2,415K, 11/10/09, 4+4
2695 sqft, YB ?, 8880 sqft lot
$896/sqft

533 18th St
$3,115K, 12/15/09, 4+5
5194 sqft, YB 1989, 8940 sqft lot
$600/sqft

215 21st Pl
$3,200K, 12/11/09, 4+4
4598 sqft, YB 1998, 7600 sqft lot
$696/sqft

428 21st Pl
$3,250K, 11/11/09, 5+4.5
4878 sqft, YB 1998, 9000 sqft lot
$666/sqft

634 21st Pl
$3,450K, 11/10/09, 4+5
4800 sqft, YB 2001, 8940 sqft lot
$719/sqft

It should be interesting to see what happens when the foreclosures come to market...

Lot Values Approaching 50% Off

2009-11-26T18:58:00.000-08:00

A little over 2 years ago, 7500 sqft lots were 2.2M and 8900 sqft lots were at 2.4M. What a difference a real estate bust can make. Now we have smaller lots selling as low as 1.4M (-36%) and the larger lots at 1.6M.(-33%). A huge 7778 sqft house built in 1990 on an 8940 sqft lot, recently closed 4 months ago for $3.2M. This has to lower lot values even more. A conservative estimate is:

7778 sqft x $225/sqft = $1,750,000 (House Value)
8940 sqft x $162/sqft = $1,145,000 (Lot Value)
House Value + Lot Value = $3,200,000

(Click on Picture to Enlarge)
This house located at 701 17th Street is situated on a corner lot, which demands a higher lot value . Thats puts our regular 8900 sqft lots around 1.4M and the smaller 7500 sqft lots at 1.2M. With another $100K - 200K drop and we will be at 50% off 2007 peak prices.

90402 Sales During the Last 6 Months

2009-11-14T16:35:00.000-08:00

There has been some renewed interest for "The 90402" Let's post recent sales here, and open it up for discussion. Needless to say, the area is trending down and prices are off approximately 25% since 2007.

Here are the lastest sales that closed escrow from May through November, listed from lowest to highest price.

858 12th St #1
$765K, 10/1/09, 2+2
1486 sqft, YB 1982
$514/sqft

1010 California Ave #3
$779K, 7/30/09, 2+2
1426 sqft, YB 1988
$546/sqft

822 19th St Apt C
$915K, 7/27/09, 2+3
1786 sqft, YB 1974
$512/sqft

2814 Washington Ave
$1,146K, 7/24/09, 2+1
1093 sqft, YB 1938, 6627 sqft lot
$1,048/sqft

825 26th St
$1,245K, 9/8/09, 3+1
1549 sqft, YB 1930, 8000 sqft lot
$803/sqft

954 26th St
$1,300K, 7/31/09, 3+2
1563 sqft, YB 1932, 8350 sqft lot
$831/sqft

2112 Washington Ave
$1,375K, 8/25/09, 3+2
910 sqft, YB 1941, 4148 sqft lot
$1,510/sqft

454 9th St
$1,402K, 6/18/09, 4+2
2575 sqft, YB 1924, 7500 sqft lot
$544/sqft

714 Euclid St
$1,600K, 9/2/09, 3+2
2178 sqft, YB 1927, 7500 sqft lot
$734/sqft

320 9th St
$1,600K, 5/20/09, 3+2
1733 sqft, YB 1924, 7500 sqft lot
$923/sqft

620 22nd St
$1,625K, 8/19/09, 3+2
1741 sqft, YB 1922, 7550 sqft lot
$933/sqft

747 23rd St
$1,645K, 9/28/09, 3+2
1216 sqft,YB 1938, 8700 sqft lot
$1,352/sqft

636 16th St
$1,700K, 8/21/09, 2+2
1322 sqft, YB 1952, 7500 sqft lot
$1,285/sqft

716 18th St
$1,780K, 5/29/09, 3+2
1697 sqft, YB 1924, 8940 sqft lot
$1,048/sqft

409 21st St
$1,800K, 8/27/09, 2+2
2018 sqft, YB 1950, 8940 sqft lot
$891/sqft

340 21st Pl
$1,810K, 9/29/09, 3+1
1728 sqft, YB 1923, 9000 sqft lot
$1,047/sqft

231 18th St
$1,968K, 9/23/09, 2+1
1829 sqft, YB 1935, 8940 sqft lot
$1,076/sqft

449 Euclid St
$2,000K, 6/9/09, 3+2.5
2968 sqft, YB 1923, 7500 sqft lot
$673/sqft

2009 Montana Ave
$2,010K, 10/28/09, 5+6.5
4380 sqft, YB 2009, 3838 sqft lot
$453/sqft

321 19th St
$2,028K, 8/6/09, 2+2
2041 sqft, YB 1923, 8940 sqft lot
$993/sqft

403 22nd St
$2,050K, 5/15/09, 3+2.5
2523 sqft, YB 1949, 9815 sqft lot
$812/sqft

350 21st St
$2,080K, 6/17/09, 4+3
3342 sqft, YB 1927, 8950 sqft lot
$622/sqft

858 25th St
$2,150K, 5/28/09, 3+3
2637 sqft, YB 1928, 8000 sqft lot
$818/sqft

633 11th St
$2,160K, 8/13/09, 5+4.5
4000 sqft, YB 1922, 7500 sqft lot
$540/sqft

2222 Washington Ave
$2,236K, 10/13/09, 4+3
1276 sqft (?), YB 2009, 5060 sqft lot
$1,752/sqft

457 24th St
$2,250K, 7/21/09, 5+4.5
3769 sqft, YB 1935, 8699 sqft lot
$596/sqft

634 12th St
$2,309K, 6/9/09, 3+2.5
2500 sqft, YB 1924, 7500 sqft lot
$923/sqft

634 23rd St
$2,400K, 7/8/09, 3+2.5
2546 sqft, YB 1928, 8800 sqft lot
$942/sqft

405 9th St
$2,500K, 10/6/09, 4+3.5
2993 sqft, YB 1932, 7500 sqft lot
$835/sqft

715 23rd St
$2,550K, 10/20/09, 5+5.5
???? sqft, YB 1933, ???? sqft lot
????/sqft

215 24th St
$2650K, 9/30/09, 4+3.5
3060 sqft, YB 1926, 8700 sqft lot
$868/sqft

433 25th St
$2,800K, 9/15/09, 5+4
3423 sqft, YB 1938, 8700 sqft lot
$817/sqft

523 14th St
$3,000K, 8/7/09, 5+5.5
4283 sqft, YB 2001, 7500 sqft lot
$700/sqft

632 16th St
$3,048K, 5/5/09, 4+4.5
4000 sqft, YB 2000, 7500 sqft lot
$868/sqft

632 11th St
$3,150K, 9/28/09, 5+6
4060 sqft, YB 1995, 7500 sqft lot
$775/sqft

701 17th St
$3,200K, 7/23/09, 6+7
7778 sqft, YB 1990, 8940 sqft lot
$411/sqft

Which house was the best buy and why? Also, if anyone has the missing information on 715th 23rd St ( House sqft & Lot sqft) that would be greatly appreciated.

New Lot Value Set in Gillette Regent Square

2009-04-19T15:21:00.001-07:00

We have a recent sale in GRS at 210 21st Street. It just closed on 4/14/09 for a price of $1,700,000. It is located on one of the best streets NOM. Even though it's location is 2 houses from San Vicente, the large house next door acts as a good buffer. The house was listed originally listed at $2,249,000 back in November of 2008. Apparently they felt they could fetch peak pricing when these 8940 ft lots were in the $2,200,000 - $2,300,000 range. That's a drop of about 25% in less than 2 years. Pretty much in line with what is being reported these days, in regards to this level of the market. High end properties in Los Angeles are down 20-30%, whereas low end properties are down over 50%. With most of the sales concentrated in the lower end tier, the higher end tier is basically stuck. Very few, if any sales happening, and with sellers unrealistic about their asking prices, buyers are now holding all the cards. Most buyers are waiting for the higher end tier to catch up to the 50% off mark, before making a purchase. If this were to happen, GRS lots should settle between $1,100,000 - $ 1,200,000, with the smaller NOM 7500 ft lots going between $800,000 - $900,000.

Here are the details on our latest sale in GRS:

(Click on photos to enlarge)
210 21st Street
Built in 1950
3+3, 2175 sq ft
8940 sq ft Lot
Sold 4/14/09 for $1,700,000

Great Street!

How low do you think these lots go ??

Listing Prices Dropping as Sales Slow to a Crawl

2009-03-28T19:14:00.000-07:00

Listing Prices in 90402 are creeping down, as very little inventory is moving now. We now have a listing at 720 17th Street for $1649K. That puts lots starting at around $1.5 Million now. According to Melissa Data, 5 homes have sold in the month of March so far, at an average selling price of $1452K. Has the recession finally caught up to 90402?

Our latest reader poll said:

The amount of people underwater on their mortgage is:

0-10% (10%)
11-20% (20%)
21-30% (50%)
31-40% (20%)

How will this affect selling prices, come this summer?

Santa Monica SFR Sales Almost Dead in the Water

2009-03-22T18:17:00.000-07:00

A total of 5 houses sold in all of Santa Monica during the month of February, according to Dataquick. This has to be a record low for the city. 4 of those were in 90402, although only 2 appear on Zillow. The other 3 zipcodes had a grand total of 1 sale. What does this say about the spring selling season? Most buyers are now entrenched on the sidelines watching for deep discounts, even in 90402. Some of the sellers will be in distress, once Alt-A and Option Arms begin resetting here. Once this happens, listings are bound to increase. Or, is everybody in 90402 able to wait it out?

Here is the breakdown of all SFR sales in Santa Monica last month.

90403 (0)
90404 (0)
90405 (1)
90402 (4)

What is interesting to note is the feeder markets for 90402 had only 1 sale. That makes it that much harder to make sales in 90402, as the move-up market is almost gone.

Commercial Vacancies on Montana Avenue

2009-03-16T22:50:00.000-07:00

Take a drive down Montana lately, and you will be astounded at all of the "For Lease" signs. It seems there are 2 or three on every block. With the world of credit drying up and consumers clamping down, who can stay in business on this street? Some businesses that have been here for years, are now folding up shop. My guess is, the financial fiasco has hurt many NOM households and the shopping sprees are all but gone. Everyone is scaling back as job loss, and recession take their toll.

I guess no matter how bad it gets, there will always be Peets and Wild Oats.

2 Sales, Corner the Market in February

2009-03-08T16:34:00.000-07:00

NOM had only 2 sales in the month of February. Both of them happened to be on corner lots. 2 entirely different properties though. The first one, was a beautiful French Normandy remodelled in 2006. It went fairly close to it's asking price (93%). The other, Spanish Style built in 1989, took an enormous hit on it's original asking price (66%). Needless to say, very little is moving in the area and more listings have started piling up.

Here are the 2 sales for the month:

(Click on photos to enlarge)

473 16th Street, 2006 Remodel
4+4.5, 5246 sqft, Lot 8900 sqft
Sold on 2/11/09 for $3,720,000
French Normandy Style

557 12th Street, YB 1989
6+5.5, 4183 sqft, Lot 7500 sqft
Sold on 2/12/09 for $2,786,000
Spanish Style

A finished 6+5.5, 4200 sqft home on a corner lot, under 2.8 million. Makes you wonder how much the lots are worth now...

Jumping the Gun for Spring?

2009-02-21T13:00:00.000-08:00

Price undercutting has officially begun in the 90402. This home on 14th Street is in move-in condition and is far from any fixers we have seen at this price. On a busier street than most, with the exception of 7th and 26th Street, it's original list price over 9 months ago was $450,000 higher. It appears the seller is getting serious, as we have seen only major fixers and teardowns at this price. With the spring selling season right around the corner, could this be the beginning of significant declines in 90402?

Here are the specifics on the home:

(Click on photo to enlarge)

517 14th Street, YB 1925
3+3, 2063 sqft, Lot 7500 sqft
Listed 5/1/08 at $2,349,000
Relisted 2/18/09 at $1,898,000
Spanish style

Vote in the poll to the upper right, and guess the final selling price.

The Next Land Value Comp in Gillette Regent Square

2009-02-15T09:28:00.000-08:00

It looks like our next land value comp in GRS will arrive shortly. This home is an absolute teardown. Nice lot, in a great neighborhood, providing a fresh start to build something you desire. The only question is, at what price? The house is being sold by heirs and they appear motivated. Surely it should attract multiple offers, but again, at what price. you can figure approximately $100,000 to scrape and dispose of the house. It was originally listed over 2 months ago at $2,245,000, and is currently listed at $1,899,000, as of 2/10/09. Here are the specifics:

(Click on photo to enlarge)

415 17th Street
3+3, 2073 sqft, Lot 8950 sqft
Listed at $2,245,000 on 12/1/08
Listed at $1,899,00 on 2/10/09

Is it time to jump in, or wait?

Total Sales Volume Drops 61% in January (YOY)

2009-02-08T22:20:00.000-08:00

The latest numbers from Melissa Data show the business transacted in January of this year, suffered compared to last year. With a substantial increase in 90402 inventory, this spring will prove challenging.

Here are the data for January:

01/08 - 14 Sales, $2,009K Average Sale, $28,126K Total Volume
01/09 - 4 Sales, $2,738K Average Sale, $10,952K Total Volume
(-61.1%)

The High and the Low for December 2008

2009-01-31T17:02:00.000-08:00

Our range for this month is $2,000,000 to over $5,000,000. Actually, the 2 sales were one street apart as, one was a teardown on 19th Street and the other, was new construction on 20th. Both are located in Gillette Regent Square. Is there still room for developers on these lots? 20th Street was the second $5,000,000+ sale, recently in the area.

(Click on photos to enlarge)

534 19th Street, YB 1924

2+2, 1925 sqft, Lot 8940 sqft

Sold on 12/19/08 for $2,000,000

(Lot Value)

433 20th Street, YB 2008

?????????????, Lot 8940 sqft

Sold on 12/15/08 for $5,537,500

Sold on 5/12/06 for $2,280,000

(Lot Value)

90402 vs 90403. How Much of a Premium for Land Values?

2009-01-26T18:37:00.000-08:00

Lately, there has been some discussion on how much of a premium, should be placed on land values North or South of Montana Ave. If you were to build 2 houses, The first house, 1 block North of Montana, and another identical house, 1 block South of Montana, given the same size lot, on the same street, how much difference in value would there be? Is there that much difference between the the two zip codes?

Which Year, Will Prices Ultimately Roll Back To ?

2009-01-17T17:05:00.000-08:00

Now that prices for raw land have begun to decline, exactly which year will they return to? We will start by looking at entry level houses, as these are easiest to compare. An original house on a standard lot, is a good basis in which to begin our evaluation. The cost of improvements are more difficult, due to variations in size, construction, materials, design and age. Therefore, if we take lot value, we can get a good idea, of how a market is performing. Most of the lots are either 7500 or 9000 sqft. With original houses built in the 20s and 30s, the unimproved houses, are generally starters.

Here are the latest entry level houses, sold during the last quarter of 2008. We can also break them down by Price Per Sqft of Land, to get an idea of how much the standard starter home is currently worth. In addition, the % gain over the last 10 years, according to Zillow will be incuded. Since the latest housing bubble began in 1997 and the credit markets started to loosen in 1999, we should take these values into consideration.

(Click Photos to Enlarge)

423 15th Street, YB 1931
3+2, 2262 sqft, Lot 7500 sqft
Sold on 10/15/08 for $2,365K
$315/sqft of Land
10 yr appreciation : 124.5%

416 21st Place, YB 1926
3+1.5, 1644 sqft, Lot 9000 sqft
Sold on 10/31/08 for $2,185K
$242/sqft of Land (GRS)
10 yr appreciation : 134.6%

451 19th Street, YB 1926
3+2, 2200 sqft, Lot 8940 sqft
Sold on 11/20/08 for $2,200K
$246/ sqft of Land (GRS)
10 yr appreciation : 113.8%

460 Lincoln Ave, YB 1923
3+3, 2451 sqft, Lot 7500 sqft
Sold on 11/21/08 for $1,900K
$253/sqft of Land
10 yr appreciation : 82.7%
Sold in 1997 for $825K

402 19th Street, YB 1939
2+2, 1950 sqft, Lot 8940 sqft
Sold on 12/3/08 for $2,215K
$247/ sqft of Land (GRS)
10 yr appreciation : 118.7%
Sold in 1994 for $675K

This indicates that Gillette Regent Square (GRS) starters in the area are currently running about :

9000 sqft Lot x $250/sqft = $2,250,000 (GRS)

Something to keep in mind, Zillow has most of these homes estimated around $1,000,000 each in 1999.

So what year will we return to at the bottom? 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999......

How Long Can it Hold Out?

2009-01-04T18:23:00.000-08:00

From overwhelming requests, the first specific zip code meltdown blog, has now been created. Those interested in "The 90402" would like to concentrate the discussion to this area, North of Montana. The current outlook is mixed, as expressed on other blogs. Hopefully, this blog will allow all to have their opinions. Please try to back up your statements with facts, as we will be concentrating on recent "closed sales". For example, at the end of last year, we witnessed a few houses sell under $2,000,000, North of Montana.

(Click on photos to enlarge)

370 22nd Street
5+2, 2998 sqft, 7500 sqft Lot
Sold for $1600K on 10/07/08
$216/sqft of Land

733 20th Street
3+2, 1704 sqft, 8940 sqft Lot
Sold for $1750K on 9/11/08
$195/sqft of Land (GRS)

219 23rd Street
3+2, 1758 sqft, 7975 sqft Lot
Sold for $1880K on 4/9/08
$235/sqft of Land

These properties clearly show that, Lot Values are under $2,000,000 North of Montana.

If we look at the $/sqft of Land, we get the following valuations:

Standard 7500 sqft Lot x $200/sqft = $1,500,000
Standard 9000 sqft Lot x $225/sqft = $2,025,000 (GRS) Gillette Regent Square

The questions now are:

1) How long will 90402 home values hold, once land values start to decline?
2) What does this say about development prospects?
3) When and how much will values drop?